Al-Qaeda will come back?

Analysts say that Al-Qaeda is busy in Designing a Comeback Strategy to Afghanistan

According to WHO in 2012, 60% to 80% people are suffering from psychological problems after 9/11 and if the trend continues, the mental illness by itself will pose a serious danger to the regional peace is Asia. Aqeel Yousafzai a well-known writer and analyst says: “Afghanistan shouldn’t be compared to another country like India, Iran or Pakistan, but different decades of Afghanistan be compared like 80s, 90s and 2000s, of which the Afghanistan of late 20th Century was far better than the Afghanistan of 21st Century. This reflects the effectiveness of the US/NATO forces and policies in Afghanistan”.

Mr. Aqeel says that Al-Qaeda and Daaish, as reported by some quarters, are busy in devising a strategy of coming-back to Afghanistan if US/NATO forces really withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014-16. The war in Afghanistan is mainly supported by multi-national companies, 73% of which are from the USA, and who are not in a mood to continue the war and proxy-wars in Afghanistan anymore. Saudi Arabia and Iran on one side, and China and the USA on another side, are engaged in proxy wars in Pak-Afghan region, especially FATA, KPK and Baluchistan where they find palatable fodder for war and insurgencies. There is need of unity among Pashtoon leaders and scholars as they should rise to the occasion, join hands and talk directly to the powerful stakeholders for safety in the area, as the so-called political Pashtoon leadership has badly failed to address the problems of Pashtoons and Afghans.

War is a tool for the US dominance and national unity and that’s why war is a permanent determinant of the US foreign policy and we have to understand this mindset of the US, more particularly of the Pentagon, if we have to understand the future of US-Afghan War (2001-2014). If we look into US history, the US keeps on shifting from one battle-field to another as US-oscillation from Iraq to Afghanistan and back to Iraq and Syria and so on.

The analyst Aqeel Yousafzai believes that China has been approached by the present government of Afghanistan to exert its influence on Pakistan for stability in Afghanistan, and that’s the reason we see a visible tilt in Pakistan’s real policy-makers in this context. China’s economic interest in Afghanistan and Chinese sensitivities on Sinkyang might tempt China to play a greater role in Afghanistan. “The direct causalities of war in Afghanistan and Iraq are far lesser than the casualties of the indirect (proxy) war in Pakistan. The proxy-wars have created serious political schisms and intellectual furrows in the political and academic circles of Pakistan. Another implication for Pakistan is that suicide attacks are greater and more dangerous in Pakistan than Afghanistan. More than two thousands of tribal elders in FATA have succumbed to militant attacks which has destroyed the socio-political life of FATA. The deaths of Peace Volunteers in Swat are far higher than any other disaster in Swat in the recent months. “Pointing to Pakistan as a main irritant and cause of Afghan debacle is not a realistic approach and all stakeholders have their role in the present mess in Afghanistan. The recent shift in this policy of blame-game by the present Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is a good initiative and will bring fruits soon.

Analyst Fasihuddin (PSP) believes that the best thing in the western world is that they do de-briefing after all kinds of operations, and they learn lessons from their actions, and presently, the US is carrying out its de-briefing sessions and Pakistan should meticulously study this phenomenon. The anti-Pakistan writings are coming to no end in the west which is not good for a friendly relationship and trust-building between the western and Pakistani communities.

According to Ex-Vice Chancellor, Prof. Dr. Qibla Ayaz, Pashtoons have been deliberately plunged into the radical salafi thoughts and that is the worst victimization of the Pashtoons to charge them from their centuries old Hanafi school of thought. Dr. Qibla suggests that Afghan students by given open admissions and we should remove all kinds of restrictions in this context.

Renowned scholar and expert on Afghan Affairs, Mr. Juma Khan Sufi, articulates that time has come that Pashtoons should critically analyze themselves for their own hard times and they should now stop attributing their ills to others through presumed conspiracy theories. Pasthoon’s history is only a history of kings and rulers, and we have no social history at all. Due to our internal weaknesses, we have no say in the political decisions about this region. First we have to build our nation and rise to a status and then we will have a stake in the affairs of our fate. Our backwardness, like Somalia and Yemen, has paved the way for external interference. Pashtoon must come out of tunnel vision and should now think out-of-box, without which they will be interfered regularly.

Chairman World Pashtoon Conference and veteran scholar Mr. Saleem Raz says that the war in Afghanistan is not close to its end as this war of resources will have a long way down till the US finds another fertile land of resources and battle-field for testing their weapons. However, it is we who provide the raw-material for war and terrorism in joining one group or the other. The Communist revolution in Afghanistan was at appropriate time and people were not ready and educated for women emancipation, economic equality and land distribution. Similarly, the present tribal society of Afghanistan, and which is already war-torn for more than three decades, is not prepared to accept, digest and carry on the modern democratic system and norms of market economy and capitalism. This will also be a failure.

Chances of comeback of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan are obvious. But political stability and economic growth can be helpful to negate their control over Afghans. There is need of economic development and socialization among different tribes and groups of Afghanistan in order to prevent the influence of Taliban and Al-Qaeda.

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